Are you tired of the traditional league tables that only take into account wins, losses, and draws? Are you looking for a fairer and more accurate reflection of your football team's season performance? Well, the wait is over, because in this article we'll dive into the world of Asian Handicap and see how teams have been performing against market expectations in the 2021/22 season.
Understanding the Asian Handicap market
Asian Handicap is a way of betting that levels the playing field by accounting for differences in perceived strength between the participants in a football match. This difference is influenced by a wide range of factors, from historical dominance and financial backing to situational factors such as home field advantage or player injuries.
In simple terms, the Asian Handicap is a two-way market that uses a goal handicap to alter the perceived bias between two competing teams and eliminate the possibility of a draw. The favorite is indicated by a minus sign (e.g. -0.5 goals) and the underdog by a plus sign (e.g. +0.5 goals). The outcome of the bet is determined by taking the actual score and adding the handicap.
Let's take the game Liverpool vs Chelsea at Anfield as an example. The traditional 1X2 odds for this match are 2.07 for Liverpool, 3.57 for a draw and 3.84 for Chelsea. However, with Asian Handicap, the odds are adjusted to more closely equalise both sides.
The Asian Handicap odds for Liverpool are 2.07 (-0.5), meaning they start with a virtual 0.5 goal deficit. This means that in order to win the bet, Liverpool must win the game. On the other hand, for Chelsea, the odds are 1.86 (+0.5), meaning they start with a 0.5 goal advantage. To win the bet, Chelsea must either win the game or at least draw.
By using the Asian Handicap, bettors have a more balanced and appealing choice compared to traditional 1X2 betting.
The Asian Handicap performance metric
In order to measure a team's performance against market expectations, we use the metric "units per game" (UPG). This metric is calculated from the Asian Handicap market for each team over the course of the entire season. It represents the number of units won or lost on each handicap bet (closest to 50/50), based on a standard bet size of 1 unit per game.
If a team has a positive UPG, it means that it has performed better than the market expected, and bettors who placed bets on that team using the Asian Handicap market would have won more units than they lost. Conversely, if a team has a negative UPG, it means that it has underperformed compared to market expectations, and bettors would have lost units on their bets.
To compare the UPG with the team's actual performance, we also calculate the "points per game" (PPG) earned by each team in the league. The PPG reflects the number of points a team earned for each game, based on the standard 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a loss - and thus represents the common league table.
The data is based on the closing line provided by Pinnacle, the final set of odds before a game starts. This line takes into account all available information and makes the most accurate estimate of the true probabilities of the outcomes of the game. This means that the odds offered by Pinnacle are highly efficient and considered a benchmark in the industry.
It is important to note that the odds include a bookmaker's margin. This margin is how bookmakers generate their profit and as a result, sports betting in general has a negative expected value. However, Pinnacle stands out with a significantly lower margin of 1 to 3% compared to other bookmakers, providing odds that more accurately reflect the true probabilities.
The Asian Handicap performance tables
To give you a clear picture of the teams that have been performing well and those that have been underperforming, we've analysed the Big Five leagues in detail, which consists of the Premier League (England), La Liga (Spain), Bundesliga (Germany), Serie A (Italy), and Ligue 1 (France).
And for those who want to dive deeper, we have compiled a comprehensive table of 594 teams across 33 leagues worldwide, allowing you to do your own research and see how each team stacks up against market expectations.
🏴 Premier League
The English Premier League 2021/22 saw a surprising outcome according to the Handicap Table, with Newcastle crowned as champions and Tottenham coming in second. Burnley and Brentford qualified for the UEFA Champions League spots. On the other hand, Norwich City, Leeds United, and surprisingly, Manchester United, were relegated.
🇪🇸 La Liga
The Spanish La Liga 2021/22 had a remarkable champion in Elche, edging out Real Madrid for the top spot. Real Betis and Sevilla were also able to secure their place in the UEFA Champions League. Meanwhile, FC Barcelona and Atlético Madrid were fortunate enough to avoid being relegated to La Liga 2, a fate that befell Deportivo Alavés, Levante, and Celta de Vigo.
🇩🇪 Bundesliga
In the German Bundesliga 2021/22, VfL Bochum emerged as the unforeseen handicap champion with a comfortable lead, followed by FC Köln, SC Freiburg, and Union Berlin, who all qualified for the UEFA Champions League. Hertha Berlin needs to fight for their survival in the relegation playoffs, while Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg were directly relegated.
🇮🇹 Serie A
The Italian Serie A 2021/22 saw a dominant performance from AC Milan, with a stunning lead over the competition. Torino, Udinese, and Napoli all secured spots in the UEFA Champions League, while Atalanta, Juventus, and Roma were hit with relegation, a surprising outcome for these traditionally strong teams.
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
The French Ligue 1 saw Nantes come out on top with a comfortable lead, followed by Olympique Marseille who secured their place in the UEFA Champions League. Nice rounded off the top three and earned the spot for the Champions League qualification. Clermont and Paris St. Germain faced direct relegation while Saint-Étienne would play the relegation play-off.
🗺 All 33 leagues
In the all teams table, Vancouver Whitecaps tops the list, followed by Zürich, Adelaine United, FC Twente, and Vissel Kobe, all with an UPG above 30. Betting the Asian Handicap on Vancouver throughout their 35 games would have earned you a total of 12.3 units, yielding a return of 35%. On the opposite side of the table, Cincinnati, LASK Linz, Crotone, and Qingdao Hainiu performed worst with UPG of -40 or lower.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, out of the 594 teams analyzed, 278 achieved a positive return of 993 units while 316 teams resulted in a loss of -1,445 units. When all 21,230 handicap bets were placed on each team, the overall result would have been a loss of -452 units with a -2.13% yield. And yes, you guessed it right - this is where the bookmakers' margin kicks in!
As we have seen, analyzing a team's performance in terms of handicap betting goes beyond the traditional 1X2 market, which only shows how often a team won, drew or lost. This is evident in traditional league tables and "bookmaker statistics", which show only basic information about a team's form (e.g. last 5 games), while ignoring the nuances and complexities of their performance against the highly efficient handicap market.
Therefore, to assist you in analyzing teams' performance in terms of handicap betting, we have developed the Handicap Performance Table for the current season. It offers a teams' game-by-game form, their UPG won or lost, and a head-to-head comparison for their upcoming opponents. The best part? You can access this tool for free by simply signing up! 🆓
Stefan
If you want to learn more about the Asian Handicap markets, be sure to read on at the Pinnacle betting resources.
Pinnacle
Joseph Buchdahl